â€œMethaneâ€ is said to me as a statement a lot. When I probe if thereâ€™s more information behind the statement, I donâ€™t hear very much.
The overwhelming majority of physicians do not have a good understanding of climate science. It’s okay, we’re all on a learning journey 🙂 .
We should understand:
- Climate change is a threat to human health
- Diabetes, now a global epidemic, is also a threat to human health
- Physicians / health professionals have a role in the mitigation of both, with the right information
Above are calculated global sources of methane as well as modeling of the sources of the increase since 2008.
Methane is a greenhouse gas that is not the same as carbon dioxide. It has 28 times the global warming potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide. At the same time, it also has a much shorter half-life in the atmosphere, typically broken down in 12 years, unlike carbon dioxide with a half life of 1,000 years. Therefore, methane is important as a contributor to climate change, and also an important lever to mitigate it, because a reduction brings benefits much faster. For a deeper look at how this is calculated, see: Photo Friday: Beef Brisket, Brussels Sprouts and GWP*: in search of my/the Sustainable Diet
This paper (reference below) is a discussion piece on the causes of a “massive” increase in methane in the atmosphere in this century, by Robert Howarth, PhD, at Cornell (Twitter:Howarth_Cornell). He does a great job in this video explaining the methodology and the idea that previous descriptions of methane increases being driven by biogenic sources (agriculture) are probably incorrect.
The image on the right, above, shows a steady increase in methane, a plateau, and then a steep rise. Below it is an image of the isotopic composition of the methane. It shows, as Howarth explains, that the rise before the plateau probably has a different cause than the rise after the plateau.
Not shown here are satellite images of global methane emissions….well okay, let’s show the satellite image…
They show a signifcant rise coming from the United States, which has not increased its cattle herd, but has significantly increased production of fossil fuel energy.
Given our finding that natural gas (both shale gas and conventional gas) is responsible for much of the recent increases in methane emissions, we suggest that the best strategy is to move as quickly as possible away from natural gas, reducing both carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Natural gas is not a bridge fuel (Howarth, 2014).Howarth RW. Is Shale Gas a Major Driver of Recent Increase in Global Atmospheric Methane? Biogeosciences Discuss [Internet]. 2019 Apr 23;1â€“23.
Healthy People and Healthy Planet, not one or the other
Climate scientists are urging us to consider a bigger picture than we currently are, in the interest of our survival.
We donâ€™t need to ban cars; we need to electrify them (and we need that electricity to come from clean energy). We donâ€™t need to ban burgers; we need climate-friendly beef…The bigger issue is that focusing on individual choices around air travel and beef consumption heightens the risk of losing sight of the gorilla in the room: civilizationâ€™s reliance on fossil fuels for energy and transport overall, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of global carbon emissions.See: Individual Choices Won't Be Enough to Save the Planet | Time – @MichaelEMann
Consistent with the views above, I have been witnessing cognitive dissonance in the health professions and society in general: Just Read: Carbon footprint of the global pharmaceutical industry â€“ â€œSignificantly worse than the automotive industryâ€.
The Climate is Changing
- Plot your home city temperature and see for yourself. I did, this is Washington, DC:
My generation of physicians trained in an era where we had no choice but to develop insatiable curiosity; as I shared in my TedX talk way back when, the lack of it in the generation before us was devastating.
Besides the work of Robert Howarth, I’d like to acknowledge Peter Ballerstedt, PhD (@GrassBased), our metabolically healthy forage agronomist on call…
As usual, I welcome the checking of my work, feel free to post in the comments.
Howarth RW. Is Shale Gas a Major Driver of Recent Increase in Global Atmospheric Methane? Biogeosciences Discuss [Internet]. 2019 Apr 23;1â€“23.